• Brandon Lundberg

NFL Wins Above or Below expectation using preseason vegas odds

I do not gamble, and if you are a gambler, please be aware that this discussion is for entertainment purposes only.


Every season, I look at the Vegas NFL preseason win total over/under to gauge where the betting market believes each team will finish the upcoming season. In this brief exercise, we are going to take a look at the five teams through the first half of the NFL season who are well on their way to hitting the preseason Vegas total wins expectation.


Vegas Preseason Win Projections

Let's begin by taking a look at the preseason top five according to projected Vegas win totals.

Kansas City Chiefs- Vegas 11.5

% to expectation = 69.57% (8-1) Wins Trend = 15 (+3.5)

Baltimore Ravens- Vegas 11.5

% to expectation = 52.17% (6-2) Wins Trend = 12 (+.5)

New Orleans Saints- Vegas 10.5

% to expectation = 57.14% (6-2) Wins Trend = 12 (+1.5)

San Francisco 49ers- Vegas 10.5

% to expectation = 38.10% (4-5) Wins Trend = 8 (-1.5)

Seattle Seahawks- Vegas 9.5

% to expectation = 63.16% (6-2) Wins Trend = 12 (+2.5)


Total Percentage to Vegas Win Expectation

Now let's examine the top five teams who are well on their way to expectation through the halfway point of the NFL season.

Pittsburgh Steelers- Vegas 9

% to expectation = 88.89% (8-0) Wins Trend = 16-0 (+7)

Miami Dolphins- Vegas 6

% to expectation = 83.33% (5-3) Wins Trend = 10 (+5)

Buffalo Bills- Vegas 9

% to expectation = 77.78% (7-2) Wins Trend = 12 (+3)

Arizona Cardinals- Vegas 6.5

% to expectation = 76.92% (5-3) Wins Trend = 10 (+3.5)

Tennessee Titans- Vegas 8.5

% to expectation = 70.59% (6-2) Wins Trend = 12 (+3.5)


Two teams are poised to blow away their preseason Vegas expectations in 2020, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins and the Steelers are both one game away from preseason expectation according to the preseason Vegas win totals at the 2020 NFL season's midway point. The Dolphins are the biggest surprise team of the 2020 NFL season and have a ton of momentum going their way to continue. They have win four games in a row to this point.


The Bottom Five Teams In Percentage to Vegas Wins Expectation

Let's take a look at the bottom five teams according to their percentage to Vegas win expectation.

New York Jets- Vegas 6.5

% to expectation = 0.00% (0-8) Wins Trend = 0 (-6.5)

Dallas Cowboys- Vegas 9.5

% to expectation = 21.05% (2-7) Wins Trend = 4 (-5.5)

New England Patriots- Vegas 9

% to expectation = 22.22% (2-5) Wins Trend = 4 (-5)

Jacksonville Jaguars- Vegas 4.5

% to expectation = 22.22% (1-7) Wins Trend = 2 (-2.5)

Los Angeles Chargers- Vegas 8

% to expectation = 25.00% (2-6) Wins Trend = 4 (-4)


We have two teams, the Dallas Cowboys and the New England Patriots, at the bottom that were not expected by the vast majority of analysts. The Cowboys are by far the biggest disappointment at this point in the 2020 NFL season.


I plan to come back and revisit this topic toward the end of the 2020 NFL season.


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